FORESTS FOR TOMORROW
by John McClarnon

The Forests for Tomorrow (FFT) program is designed to reforest both mountain pine beetle and wildfire areas in BC that cannot be reforested without non-recoverable losses. Areas salvaged for timber or bioenergy will be reforested by industry. 

MPB
By 2006 over 400 million m3 of lodgepole pine had been killed, and by 2015 the cumulative volume killed is projected to be 904 million m3, or 78% of BC’s lodgepole pine. Although some of the MPB-attacked stands will be salvage logged and planted, a large proportion will be left to regenerate naturally because of the sheer size and scope of the attack. To refine estimates of potential FFT treatable lands, the Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch supplied a projection of non-recoverable losses (NRL). This analysis showed that approximately 3.2 million hectares (of a total of 5.6 million hectares) of mature stands with more than 70% lodgepole pine might not be salvaged by 2026.
If a conservative estimate of 10% of total NRL is used, then a minimum of 300,000 hectares of mature pine stands affected by the MPB infestation will be suitable for FFT reforestation opportunities. Using a similarly conservative net down estimate, 10% or 80,000 hectares of approximately 800,000 hectares of young pine stands recently identified as at-risk of MPB attack are expected to be suitable as FFT reforestation opportunities.
So if approximately 20,000 hectares (20 million seedlings) are planted each year, it will take 19 years to survey and reforest the 380,000 hectares of mature and immature MPB-impacted areas, which are suitable for FFT reforestation. The FFT program will focus on the younger, immature, non-merchantable stands affected by MPB for the next 3-5 years while planning is underway to transition the reforestation program into mature stands.

Wildfire
Estimates of fire reforestation activities depend on determination of fire activity, locations, and timber salvage feasibility. In the Southern Interior Forest Region, a review of the 200,000 hectares of stands burned in the 2003-2004 wildfires showed that 40,000 hectares (20%) were eligible for FFT surveys. Of the areas surveyed, 10,000 hectares (25%) were identified for reforestation. Applying these ratios and a 5-year average of fire activity (area burned greater than 250 hectares), reforestation activity is estimated to add 1,000-3,000 hectares per year. With the addition of fire activity areas to the identified MPB-affected areas suitable for FFT reforestation, the total program length is rounded out to 20 years to treat approximately 400,000 ha.
While FFT areas will be selected from ground surveys, the limit of BC silviculture survey resources are an implementation constraint. Surveys have only been undertaken on 140,000 ha, or about 1% of the 13 million ha expected to be impacted. The MPB demand has driven emerging digital aerial data techniques that capitalize on the high contrast of seedlings on days when there is snow ground cover. 
More innovation is being invited in 2008. To determine how best to tackle mature non-recoverable losses, up to six pilot contracts will be initiated in the northern and southern interior as site prep contracts. To defer some of the felling, hauling, and site prep costs, the roadside sale value of the standing timber will be allocated with these contracts. 
While FFT sites continue to be selected with preference for greater than a 2% discount rate, decision making is now also nested in local landusers’ needs and considers cumulative impacts. Including other value factors will increase the benefits of limited dollars. 
Further research may change FTT’s program estimates. The effect on seed viability as the MPB-impacted canopy opens, risking warmed serotinous pinecones also opening and releasing seed into the long warm summer, requires more research. The Chief Forester’s Future Forst Ecosystems Initiative is determining how adaptable lodgepole pine species variability is to changing climate parameters. The stand types viable for bioenergy use will inevitably be redefined by operational practices as the industry develops and integrates with the timber and pulp sectors. The risk of fire entering MPB stands is very high and some fires will require an FFT response. 
Given the high level of uncertainty created by climate change, it is likely that BC’s FTT program will grow.

John McClarnon works at the Forest Practices Branch, BC Ministry of Forests & Range.